How can you blame Albany for what we are paying for Education which is 74% of our tax bill? How do you blame Albany for years of mismanagement that created debt we could not afford to pay? Each of those are self inflicted wounds. I recently read the Teacher Contract for Seaford and if the Farmingdale contract is similar the teachers here are getting a sweetheart deal without any accountability. The same is true for the superintendents. Fight the local issues first instead of worrying about $2000 sent to Melville and Albany and worry about the $6000 spent on education.

If there is a mandate to make sure that a child with Down Syndrome has to be educated I think it is important for the State to require that education because it is too easy for a local group to force these issues to not educate this child.

If we could not change things for the teachers there would not be negotiation at the local level on contracts. What about Union Free School districts?

I think the school should be required to hold a vote because it allows cronies to make too many decisions.

I think you are just painting Albany with too broad a brush and don't fully understand what is Albany mandated and what isn't.

Frank can you please define "responsible"? I am not sure I am following. You suggest each person pay a tax of 7k to 8.4k per year? And think that isnt bad? That would be in my household 14-16.8 k a year which is an increase from where I am right now. Maybe you can clarify.
NYS is resppnsible for so much of the educational process if people would just look. Mandates are one thing but unfunded mandates while imposing a cap is another thing. The school systems cannot sustain all the state mandates while the state continues to pull back money.

@ Mac.

By "responsible", I meant those wage earners from 19 - 65 years of age.

The 7k was a baseline using the summation of all school budgets within Nassau County.

I did mention the use of a sliding scale and debit/credit for number of children in household under 18 yrs of age. In your case, you would need to measure income and number of children ages 5-18. You could be paying less.

I would have a Statistician or Actuary run the numbers and see.

Please note that this would be a paradigm shift in the way we fund education. I expect many kinks to develop, but ANYTHING is better than the current system.

Frank that new system you want to create raises my taxes significantly if my wife and myself are both considered responsible. Your system would not be better for me in any form. Then how do you suppose to collect these taxes? I agree with you on the point there must be a better way but I cant see this idea being advantageous. I think it would absolutely decimate the couple who are both still working around 58 with no kids in the house.

@ Mac. As I mentioned earlier, you can't assume to paying anything without a working model. I would have a Statistician or an Actuary run the models. You presume to pay a lot, but in your example of 58 and no children, you may be paying less (credit for no children in household).

In addition, my formula did not account for any collection from 65 and older. Retirees would benefit greatly. However, if you add them in (at a much-discounted rate) it would drop the average figure.

As for collection, I would propose collection similar to income tax filing.

THe argument I've heard proposed before to that type of system is everyone including the elderly benefit from the school system. Housing prices go up and down based on the ranking of the school district. What happens when you have a contraction of students. Who pays the overhead for these additional teachers that aren't needed and can't be fired thanks to the union?

Do businesses pay a portion to school taxes???

@ James Marshall. excellent point.

I did not account for all other taxable entities such as Sole Proprietorships, Partnerships, and Corporations.

in Nassau County, there are 38,000 taxable entities:

Their income could help support the educational system in Nassau County.

@ James.... You say "Who pays the overhead for these additional teachers that aren't needed and can't be fired thanks to the union?" If jobs must be excessed due to low student enrollment, no matter if the teachers have tenure or not, their position gets eliminated and the last hired teachers get fired. If a new job opens, then those teachers are the first to get re-hired.... but your point is incorrect, the union cannot protect teachers if the teachers arent needed due to low enrollment in districts. Hence why Long Beach excessed tenured and untenured teachers this year-- it doesnt matter if u are tenured, all that matters is where you are on the seniority list

Eww Not a happy camper of keeping someone based on years. You can get rid of some really good young teachers who may take a job somewhere else and then you lose them. I'm not a fan of seniority either unless it has to do with vacation time.

Forget what the BOE can do they are a very small group of people. It is what we can do to effect change. The penalties are restrictive but that doesnt mean the taxpayers cant speak to people. Teh schools cannot violate the mandates. To think all the Albany legislators owe their jobs to the teacher's union is just a false statement. The mandates have nothing to do with the teachers. I would imagine if you ask these teachers they would like to see many of the mandates gone. Then throw in Gov Cuomo who fought for the teacher's support only to come down heavy handed on education how they feel about that. Teachers do not control Albany.

Most of these reports should be the matter of pressing a report button if the school was modernized and the data input by the teachers.

I have family in BOCES and in City Schools. Most of these are reports that teachers and administrators need to fill out so that the administrators and State are assured that the teachers and administration are doing what they are supposed to do.

Where is the cost in these mandates? THe time spent to plan which is what their job is. How would you propose the State finds out if the teachers and Administrators are doing what they are supposed to do or are we "trusting" them to do it and do it right?
Professional Performance Review Plan
Professional Performance Annual Report
Corrective Action Plan
Annual Program Report: Educationally Related Support Services
Professional Development Plan
Professional Development Plan Report
Local Special Education Comprehensive System of Personnel Development
School District Report Card
BOCES Report Card
Academic Intervention Services Procedure

James, the reports take a long time to complete. If you think about the break down of the day of a teacher-- they plan out 30 different lessons for a week (6 lessons a day, 5 days a week with a prep and a lunch for the other 2 periods) then they are at meetings both before and after school and then once those are complete, the time consuming part of their day begins when they are planning, making copies, getting things organized for the next day, differentiating their instruction, keeping data and using it to inform instruction, managing the different personalities of students and addition adults in the room, planning cooperative groups, and creating lessons and assessments based on standards. Then after that, they can sit down and fill out all of these forms-- and they are not forms that jsut require checklists--they require careful planning and goals that take a long time to compile and come with a lot of different teacher and administrators opinions and everyone needs to agree on what they put down there. These are not simple tasks and often require multiple meetings with admins and teachers to be done right, all with the goal in mind to help kids social/emotionally, educationally, and prepare them for college and career readiness... and that doesnt even begin to then go into what is required in the reports, testing, and data that special educ. teachers have to do

Julie as usual I am hearing complaints but no solution to the base problems. Find a solution and pass it on to the BOE or Union. Otherwise all of this complaining is just classic passive aggressive behavior.

James, that is certainly not a complaint-- I was just stating facts on how you are incorrect when you said "hese reports should be the matter of pressing a report button if the school was modernized and the data input by the teachers"... My point made it clear that your statement was incorrect when saying the above because it is certainly not a matter about just pressing a button

JAmes you really know very little. Do you know what the Academic Intervention Service Procedure entails?? Well AIS as it is referred to as explained to us at a BOE meeting last year is a support service the state recently mandated for students scoring below a certain test score that was raised.

THis is your complaint that the state mandates that schools provide additional tutoring to students that are failing????????? and then test them again to make sure they learned what the teacher said they did????? Oh god forbid we make sure the student is taught what we pay the teacher to teach. Again these forms take time because the teachers and administrators do not think and want them to take a long time so they can complain about it. I have worked with a teacher to fill out these forms and was able to create them in WORD and then have them mail merge the data from an Excel sheet. It cut down the time significantly.

James... AIS is NOT tutoring.. First, a instructional support team must meet and must all show data on any classroom strategies used and then show data on the success or unsuccessfulness of the strategies. Then additional support members discuss within the RTI tiers where to go next with instruction. AIS is within a new tier of supoprt. AIS is done within the school day and it is 100% data driven and lessons have to be created for each specific child to meet their deficit needs. But, your service providers in schools are often maxed out with how many students can be in groups. All groups are driven by IEP mandates (state mandates). When children are special needs and you are doing resource room, on most IEPs you cannot have more than 5 children in a group-- that is because you are dealing with a plethora of disabilities-- whether it be speech and language, emotionally distrubed, some brain damage, learning disabled, autism, no working memory, etc. Imagine having 5 students will these very, very needy disabilities and trying to create lessons that align somewhat with curriculum and also address their individual IEP goals-- I'll challenge you to come up with even one lesson for this. Now these groups are at max according to mandates and now you meet and identify a student who needs AIS-- who do you have provide this AIS? With all of the teachers being cut, who is available to provide intensive support?

Sounds like a standard strategy meeting at any company throughout the country. You make it sound like a chore when this is standard.

"First, a instructional support team must meet and must all show data on any classroom strategies used and then show data on the success or unsuccessfulness of the strategies. Then additional support members discuss within the RTI tiers where to go next with instruction."

James-- with the point of mandated regulations from the state regarding AIS-- when the groups are maxed out according to legal group sizes or IEP group maxes, where do these AIS kids go when the state mandates that they must be seen? Is there another choice but to hire more teachers? That is the only thing that makes sense but with the economy, no one is hiring... so now where do you put these kids? This is bigger than just a small problem-- state law and regulations determine how many students can be in a spec ed resource room-- which is often where students go unofficially when they go to a new tier in AIS.. but when the spec ed teachers are at max, now where do we put these kids? Kids are people and our future- putting bandaids on the problem doesn't help in the long run and then we wonder why test scores are so low.Teacher meetings are like a strategy meeting- but just take into account, it is not just pressing a button, and unfortunately, these meetings are long and data must be collected simultaneously with teaching 25 children who you are differentiating for at the same time. These meetings take away from teaching time sometimes.

You made it seem as if it is simple to have these meetings. When you work in the business world- u have these meetings and then go and implement them and nothing was lost in that hour meeting- when it comes to a teacher, it is impossible to have all of these meetings before school because you are having faculty meetings, department meetings, grade level meetings, and parent meetings before and after school at least a few days every week. So unlike the business world, when teachers meet for these "strategy" meetings, at the same time is taking away from teaching time. You don't get the opportunity to stay late at work to "teach" because the kids come home.

It's not about getting teachers "who" teach... Its about allowing teachers to teach instead of taking away all of their teaching time for meetings, testing, report writing, medicaid billing, organizing data sheets and analyzing old state tests to guess what types of questions may be on the upcoming state tests and forcing teachers to teach to tests since now majority of the day is spent on test prep opposed to teaching children how to think instead of what to think in order to pass the tests...

I'm sorry I just don't understand. Many of these teachers want to make a 6 figure salary but you guys are defending them from being accountable for doing their work. THe average full time person person works 1960 hours in a year. People making six figures work an avg of 2450 hours. Teachers work 182 days and if we assume 8 hours per day the result is 1456 hours.

Come crying to me when the work equals out. The State should require accountability from these people.

@james.. James... teachers are in school 1456 hours per week. Do you now how long it takes to plan 6 different lessons each day, and then differentiating each concept. These are children we are talking about-- they all are at different levels and have different backgrounds. So teachers have state standards that they have to meet but because children are at all different levels, each lesson has "a big picture" and then the teacher has to tier it at least 3 different ways using different learning styles for all of the different students. So that is creating 30 lessons per week (6 teaching pds. 5 days a week. and tiering it 3 different ways-- thats 90 different 45 minute activities to create.. Do you KNOW how long that takes??? Thats in addition to the 1456 hours of teaching time

You guys are defending the teachers by calling these unfunded mandates when in the private sector this is called directives from the home office. You don't complain you don't have time and resources to get it done. You think, you plan, and you implement the most cost and time efficient plan to meet those directives. There's no request for additional funds because each location needs to be self sufficient and provide the necessary data in a timely manner. All the complaints I am reading sound more like people at my job that don't want to work than those that are finding ways to get things done and earn their paycheck every week.

Last time I checked it was work.

James, why don't you volunteer one day at a school as a teacher and see if you can do it??

Margaret, I know many teachers and I know how much a dedicated teacher does. I also know how much the opposite side of the coin does. There was just an article of a student video taping his teacher sleeping. I know that some teachers earn their paycheck. But their is a belief in the general public and this is verified by my own experiences with teachers that there is a portion of the teaching population that do not want to work very hard for their paycheck and don't care about the kids. THese "unfunded mandates" are meant to force all teachers to prove they are doing their work. For the ones that are this is annoying and bothersome and a waste of time because they are doing what they are supposed to do anyway. For the teachers that aren't this is annoying and bothersome because they have to prove the work they are supposed to be doing is getting done.

Allow the BOE to more easily fire poor teachers and I believe you will see many of these "unfunded mandates" go away as the school improve through merit instead of attrition from retirement.

With the Unions and the Superintendents it's the "Not My Job" Syndrome. They have been told by their Unions not to do anything additional and then force the Board to authorize a new position to fulfill the mandate.

Please do not tell me this doesn't happen as I have sat in a room with teachers discussing this very thing when No Child came out.

James, Vinny and everyone else....Best poster I've seen... (For all of the teachers out there)...
"You want me to go into that room with all those kids, correct their disruptive behavior, observe them for signs of abuse, monitor their dress habits, censor their T-shirt messages and instill in them a love for learning?"

"You want me to check their backpacks for weapons, wage war on drugs and sexually transmitted diseases, and raise their sense of self esteem and personal pride?"
"You want me to teach them patriotism and good citizenship, sportsmanship and fair play, and how to register to vote, balance a checkbook, and apply for a job? You want me to check their heads for lice, recognize signs of antisocial behavior and make sure that they all pass the final exams."
You also want me to provide them with an equal education regardless of their handicaps, and communicate regularly with their parents in English, Spanish or any other language, by letter, telephone, newsletter and report card?
You want me to do all this with a piece of chalk, a blackboard, a bulletin board, a few books, and a big smile..." Could any of you do this on a daily basis???

Actually Margaret yeah, I do. It's called being a parent. What you've described doesn't have a whole lot to do with being a teacher. Maybe that's what you've been told or even mandated to do but these things are being done daily at home.

Margaret they are all great points. I wouldnt want to do it. Jack you are 100% correct a parent SHOULD be teaching these things. But disruptive behavior is everywhere, if the child is being abused by the parent who would know, somebody is buying these kids inappropriate clothing, love for learning at home or love for video games, weapons-sex-drugs at an all time high with youths,...I could go on with this but you get the point. For every good parent who holds values and ideas like you there are a dozen who do not. If thse lessons were being taught daily at HOME by the PARENT to every child we would live in a better world. The reality is with the economy and most families have both parents working or a single parent home these things arent being taught. Unless any of us walked in the shoes of a teacher for a day we have no idea what really goes on.

Teachers, proncipals and the BOE should all be held accountable. How do you judge poor performance for a teache? If you know let the state know.

Are you kidding?? That is the point of these "unfunded" mandates. To determine if the teachers are poor performers. The reason these are state mandates and not local mandates is the BOE are heavily influenced by the teacher unions that threaten to strike/protest if they are required to be accountable. As a State mandate they don't get that option.

Its politics. So the BOE do not want to require accountability becuase it would make them accountable. The state sees a need and fills the need instead of having boards make ridiculous decisions about accountability.

So wait Mac when your boss says you need to work late to finish that report you tell him it's an unfunded mandate and he needs to kick in a little for you to work on the project or do you get it done as quickly and as efficiently as possible? Because usually if you don't you are fired and they hire someone who will.

I don't see the cost because most of the "unfiunded mandates" are reports to be filled out and sent to HQ. What cost additional cost is involved? Yes time is spent on these but I would like to the the 2000 hours worth of work out of someone paid $90K instead of just the 1500 they are providing now. It sounds like teachers and supers are asking for overtime and more money rather than their jobs.

On Long Island there are 124 school districts --- 54 in Nassau County, 66 in Suffolk County and 4 that serve students in both counties.

http://www.longislandindex.org/fileadmin/Reports_and_Maps/Other_Research/2009_School_Finance_on_Long_Island.pdf

Jim this idea should be "mandated" by the state. It is insane the LI has so many districts. Consolidation would save money on many fronts besides the superintendents salaries. But the stumbling blocks are many. Who would want to merge with struggling school districts or low income school districts?

I would imagine all teachers in a union would belong to the NYSUT.

Yes, I did. And this kind of action is long past due. Once upon a time, it was almost a knee-jerk reaction by just about every district to take the funding and worry about the obligation to fulfill the mandate at a later time. This demonstrates, at least in some districts, a priority in making decisions based on fiscal prudence, as well as logic. It's about time! I hope it's something that becomes more widespread in the future.

Bob, this idea would save Mineola School District taxpayers a whopping 1%. Yes ONE Percent. I'll pass. The savings are not worth having our children's education run by a single entity overseeing 57 different programs.

Artie you figured it out to be 1% and that is based on what?? Didnt they just close a school in Mineola? You wouldnt look at just the cost of the superintendent job per say but ALL of the assistant superintendents and their staff then you could save on busing, supplies , staff etc... Is it a perfect solution? NO but if a start isnt made somewhere there will never be change.

Bob, I have been for a centralized Nassau School district for a long time. The problem is the affluent areas hate this idea because it means their money goes into a pool instead of just to their kids.

@ Bob Rabey: read link. I would love to see backoffice administration services centralized for all of Nassau or outsourced completely. That would eliminate hundreds of positions.

http://rockvillecentre.patch.com/articles/sshs-principal-don-t-use-test-scores-to-evaluate-teachers

@ james marshall.

Your comment on consolidation is true. Affluent areas do hate the idea of pooling money.

That's why funding through real estate taxation is unfair for the rest of Nassau.

Costs for labor in Nassau is approximately the same across school districts. Yet there is disproportionate income populations supporting labor, mostly un-balanced compensation, through the current taxation scheme.

In the North Shore, population densities are lower because incomes are higher and the ability to pay higher taxes is in proportion to income. The ratio of income vs taxation is balanced, despite the higher taxable figures that are reported.

However, on the South Shore, incomes are lower and the ratio much more severe. To compensate, the South Shore uses urban style zoning methods to increase population densities to make up the shortfall.

Remember, you only have 370,000 households in Nassau supporting a $6 billion/yr education budget.

It would be far more equitable to spread educational costs across 832,532 nassau residents and 38,000 businesses, (1,339,532 less 220,000 students, 214,000 seniors over 65 yrs of age, and 73,000 kids under 5), on a sliding scale based on the ability to pay.

Consolidation is just one step towards this goal.

I disagree on the seniors not paying since their house price is effected based on the success of the school district but I smell what you're cooking

@ James Marshall.

If we include seniors over 65 year of age (but a much reduced contributions), you would approve of it?

It would be a paradigm shift as school funding will no longer be a real estate taxable item, but income based.

I think the equitable distribution of wealth for education funding might even change the make-up of towns, making exclusive neighborhoods more accessible, since those excessive school tax levies would no longer apply.

This will cause the blue bloods to run for the hills.

Frank the math is killing me because for a couple of two we are talking $11K $12.5K if the $6B figure is correct. I know you don't know that's not the question. Wouldn't it be better to implement a county wide income tax and centralize the school districts. We could get rid of the redundancy of the Supers and possibly alleviate the tax burden on the poorer members of society. Just a thought.

Just to be clear I like your Idea I just don't like the result.

I am not saying that the school should be making a profit. I am saying the reason any institution is successful public or private is that all of the employees are looking to increase productivity, including submitting reports, using fewer people and less resources or as put so often, doing more with less.

Could you give me an amount these "unfunded mandates" cost the school? I'm not talking opportunity cost (use of teacher time, superintendent time etc), I'm asking for actual additional dollars spent in Farmingdale for the "Unfunded mandates"? You seem very sure that the School taxes will decrease dramatically if these additional reports were unneeded and I'm just trying to understand your justification for that statement.

Well MAC I work in the office world just like the teachers and Superintendents and there is no overtime in this world.

Well there is no overtime in your world but that doesnt mean it doesnt exist. You dont think schools want to be productive? Productivity in schools doesnt mean success. The state education department are not run by educators and that is a problem. They wield their power arbitrarily. You dont think schools are trying to do more with less? Last year alone there were more layoffs in education then ever.

I cant give you a figure of what the cost were each district is different but is was over a million. But you have to include teacher time because when a teacher is not in class the district must pay a sub. Go speak to your superintendent for business in farmingdale and he will be able to give you a pretty good number from last year. I never once stated taxes will decrease dramatically but every little it would help. The process of change needs to start somewhere.

Again I have had these discussions with teachers and superintendents in the past. I am not new to the subject nor I am naive enough to believe the propoganda protrayed by the Teacher Union or the State. Some of the ones you mentioned are for the Superintendence to report. This is what it takes to run a school. You can use buzz words like "unfunded mandates" but the reality is without these directions from the State who knows what would happen to our schools. Would the school have to be audited to find out if the Superintendent is skimming off the top or writing checks themselves? Would the BOE push special education into the smallest room available if it wasn't mandated? Would the teachers enact the new state requirements? Would the school notify the parents of pesticides being sprayed? Will the Super indicate that a building has maintenance issues if not required to do a building survey?

We all hope that the teachers and supers do the right thing but these directives from the State are to ensure the educational goals of the students are met and the parents are informed timely of changes.

James when did you have the discussion with a superintendent about unfunded mandates in relation to the budget? What superintendent told you these reports are just lie pushing a button? I am sure the taxpayer would love to know. You are very big on comparing private sector to the school. How about your boss tells you to spend your money on all the reports his mandates you to accomplish then tells you to spend all your money on programs someone from a different field came up with then tells you to spend money on fixing up the bathroom or kitchen so your co-workers can eat then tell you to spend your money to research and implement his new strategies? James you only see one side and I am not sure you have the abilty to see it any other way. See you at the next board meeting if you ever go.

I've talked to BOCES supers and teachers. THe problem is with many of these reports is the staff (teachers and superintendents) do not utilize technology properly. Many of these reports should be in a computer but they are printed and filled out by hand ( how many nights copying the same inane accepted comment into multiple childrens reports). In this particular case I was helping her fill them out because she didn't want to do it at school and it made her union rep mad. We developed a Word doc and Excel page to merge the data for the next year. It took half the time to gather the data and 20 minutes to print all the forms. I'm saying there are many inefficiencies within the school system that should be addressed and the cause is usually a passive aggressive resistance to having to fill out the report.

Vinny what you and I are bringing up are two different arguments. I agree that tenure should not be for life. But, it should give the teacher some protection. To simply fire a teacher because they make too much based on an agreed system by the teachers and district is not the right way to operate. If you fire a teacher because of pay you will never have good teachers. the door will revolve based on pay not merit. this also would not be good for the student. there needs to be a middle ground. Why is the BOE revoking tenure to an administrator? Did that adm have a history of negligence? Was he written up? Poor job performance? What is their rationale? Is it just salary? Doesnt the board vote on tenure? Somebody approved it didnt they? Vinny I DO attend board meetings and as I have pointed out to James Marshall sat down with a superintendent to discuss these unfunded mandates and when I realized the costs I was blown away. A feel a huge mistake is being made in comparing schools to public jobs that are based on generating and making money. You cannot compare the two because the model is completely different. What I believe we all agree on is something needs to change from Albany right on down to the teacher including us the taxpayer. Vinny thank you for an intelligent response.

1) The teacher at the top of the pay scale has the most experience. So it is in the best interest of the schools to fire teachers with experience and keep the low paid new teachers? Really?
2) Administrators serve at the pleasure of the Board. There is no tenure for administrators. They have a contract.

John, administrators do get tenure. Call your local admin building and ask them- they all have to get tenure to stay in the district

So the BOE granted her tenure illegally now they are trying to revoke it? If I were the ass. Sup I would sue also. But once again after reading the article what did she do to deserve a firing? If you look on their website it appears that a few of them havebeen there a long time.

Vinny I never said a teacher deserves more job security. Tenure provides benefits to the school and students because you keep the seasoned teachers instead of getting rid of them for new one because of money. I agree with everything you say. A teacher shhould be held acountable for poor performance and fired for incompetence. A teacher should not be fired solely because they are high up on the pay scale.

Vinny, although I disagree with many of your points, have no fear. Tenure means less and less now- with the new standards that most US states are adopting, if a teacher has 2 consecutive years of of a poor teacher eval (which now must include test scores) they go on a list and if you go 3 years in a row, the district begins termination proceedings. As of the 2012-2013 teaching is totally different. I don't agree- how can you evaluate a teacher based on the performance of children when children performance can be so unpredictable bc of outside circumstances. 1.25 million are abused annually, 19 million get free or reduced lunch-many of which eat their only meal of the day at school. A child can't perform when things like that are going on in their lives-- the teacher can't control that and there are thousands of other things that effect student achievement that have nothing to do with the teacher. Teachers certainly need to be held accountable but I think we need to find a better way to do it

Wee when 40% of a teachers evaluation comes from test scores, no matter what your class make-up is, only test scores matter. What about special ed teachers-- the special ed kids scores make up a special ed teachers evaluation-- how does that make sense?? The whole process needs to be re-created

Vinny I don't actually know if she was fired. I just assumed so by revoking her contract into a one year deal. This seems like a mess. A superintendent recommends tenure which is illegal than the board approves it. Where is any accountability and I don't blame her for suing. Bottom line is the taxpayers will pay one way or the other.

I don't claim to have all the answers in this very complicated process ... but maybe a few of them . And there's no question that many possible outside factors must be weighed in the overall evaluation of any teacher.

This thing is going to be like a recipe that will need some fine-tuning here and there. It's never going to be perfect or liked by everyone, but it just might end up being not that bad. As with everything, time will tell.