Winter began at 6:12 a.m. Thursday – but what lies ahead for us after a year filled with downpours, a hurricane and an early snowstorm?
According to The Old Farmer's Almanac, the 2012-13 Winter Season for Long Island and the rest of the Atlantic Corridor will be bone-chillingly cold and drier than average winters.
The almanac predicts the coldest days this winter are coming rather quickly – from Christmas through early January and early to mid-February. The go-to-guide also suggests the snowiest periods this year would be around mid-December, around Christmas and into February.
On the whole, the almanac suggests our area will see about 3.5 inches less precipitation (in rainfall) than a normal winter and temperatures will drop from anywhere to between 1-5 degrees below the norm.
The almanac is, of course, not always correct – last winter, it called for a cold and very snow season ahead. The 2011-12 winter, however, only produced a few snowstorms, with the most occurring way before the season started in October 2011.
In the short-term, National Weather Service forecasts are calling for a cold period starting tonight that coincides with The Almanac's prediction. Other forecasters are already seeing the development of a potential snowstorm right after Christmas and another around New Year's Eve.
However, forecasts, especially those over five days out, can change in the blink of an eye.
According to a blog on Weather Underground, a Weather Channel-owned forecasting website, the Old Farmer's Almanac has about an 80% success rate on its long-term forecasts.
Expected Forecast for Long Island & Atlantic Corridor
December January February March Average Temp. 38° 35° 29° 46.5° Precipitation 4.5" 2.5" 1" 5" Overall Forecast Snowy end of month Snow/Rain then Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Rainy