Why The Glen Cove Mayoral Election Is Over

I realize that the media always likes a good horse race in politics; and when an election is as close as this one, the drive to create a rapt audience that will monitor every bit of information right to the very end, is somewhat understandable. However, simple mathematics, analysis, and plain ol' common sense convincingly demonstrate why this race for mayor has been decided.

The current difference in the tabulation is 115 votes. Let's say, for the sake of this example, there are exactly 400 absentee ballots outstanding and *every one of them* gets returned and counted. Let's also assume that every one of them shows a clear choice for mayor. To overcome a 115 vote deficit, a candidate would need a split of about 65 - 35 on those ballots. Is it possible? Well, yeah, I guess. Is it *likely*? No.

Why is it not likely? If you analyze the election day vote that has been tabulated, you can clearly see that the vote went approximately 51% (Spinello) to 49% (Suozzi). Now, this is where analysis and common sense come into play. You have to ask yourself, is there anything so unique about those absentee ballots that will skew them any differently from the vote already tabulated? The answer, for a relatively small place like Glen Cove, is no. Logically then, you must assume a high degree of randomness that will not deviate in any significant way from what is already known.

Now, the race for City Council is indeed still open. In one particular case, you have a difference of only 20 votes -- a much easier gap to overcome. There is also the issue of one important variable in council races: Ballot placement. It does matter. And in situations like this, it matters significantly. In my opinion, three candidacies are still viable to fill one seat: Dileo and Heuser, with an outside chance for Jimenez.

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Additional Analysis on the race for Mayor of Glen Cove .......

Current Known (election day result):  R. Spinello (+115)

Absentee Ballot Scenarios/Split Required for Suozzi Win/Margin*

500 / 62 - 38 /+5

450/ 63 - 37 /+2

400/ 65 - 35 /+5

350/ 67 - 33 /+4

300/ 70 - 30 /+5

250/ 74 - 26/ +5

200/ 79 - 21/ +1

*(with r.e.)